The Address | Benghazi – Libya
LONDON – Oil prices are expected to oscillate close to current levels well into the next decade, averaging around $65-70 per barrel through 2023, according to an annual survey of energy professionals conducted by Reuters.
Despite the recent slump in oil prices, forecasts have edged down by less than $5 per barrel compared with the last annual survey conducted at the start of 2018 and have changed little over the last three years.
Long-term expectations for the average price of Brent crude remain anchored around $70 per barrel, close to the $72 average realized in 2018.
The results are based on the responses from just over 1,000 energy market professionals to a poll conducted between Jan. 8 and Jan. 11.
Brent prices in 2019 are expected to average $65 per barrel, unchanged from surveys in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
In 2020, Brent is also expected to average $65 per barrel, revised down by $5 or less compared with prior surveys.
Far fewer respondents now see any risk of prices spiking to $100 or more by the end of the decade as a surge in U.S. shale output has eased fears of supply shortages.
The proportion of respondents expecting prices to average more than $90 in 2020 has fallen to just 3 percent this year, from 13 percent at the time of the 2016 survey.
By 2023, prices are still expected to average $70, with most forecasts between $60 and $80, which suggests most energy professionals think there will be enough production developed at this level to meet consumption growth.
By John Kemp: a Reuters market analyst. “The views expressed are his own,” Reuters